Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles
Since July 1, 2021, Navistar has been a TRATON GROUP brand, making it part of the Volkswagen Group’s Commercial Vehicles Business Area. This has broadened the relevant markets in the commercial vehicles business, both for trucks and for the school bus segment, which expanded to include North America (consisting of USA, Canada and Mexico).
For 2022, we expect a significantly positive development in new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes compared with the previous year, with variations from region to region, in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group.
Noticeable market growth is expected for the 27 EU countries excluding Malta, but plus the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3) because it has so far not been possible to fully satisfy the high demand for trucks due to existing supply bottlenecks. We anticipate that Turkey will witness a distinct rebound in demand and there will be a moderate increase in demand in South Africa. The truck market in North America is divided into weight classes 1 to 8. We expect a profound increase in new registrations in the segments relevant for Volkswagen – Class 6 to 8 (8.85 tonnes or heavier). We estimate that demand in Brazil will be noticeably higher than in the previous year.
On average, we anticipate slight growth rates in the relevant truck markets for the years 2023 to 2026.
A significant increase in overall demand, with regional variations, is expected for 2022 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group. We anticipate slight year-on-year market growth in the EU27+3 countries. Here, we are assuming that the coach segment will start to recover and that we will receive orders in the context of government-funded programs. We expect significant growth in North America. New registrations in Brazil are anticipated to be substantially higher than the prior-year figure.
Overall, we expect a moderate increase in the demand for buses in the relevant markets for the period from 2023 to 2026.