Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles

We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed in 2022. Overall, the global volume of new vehicle sales is expected to be moderately up on the prior year without reaching the pre-pandemic level. This prediction assumes that the Covid-19 pandemic does not flare up again and that shortages of intermediates, especially semiconductors, and commodities become less intense. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2023 to 2026.

Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will also be mixed; on the whole, we anticipate a slight increase in the sales volume for 2022. This assumes that the Covid-19 pandemic does not flare up again and that shortages of intermediates, especially semiconductors, and commodities become less intense. For the years 2023 to 2026, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.

We believe we are well prepared overall for the future challenges pertaining to automotive business activities and for the mixed development of the regional automotive markets. Our brand diversity, our presence in all major world markets, our broad and selectively expanded product range, and our technologies and services put us in a good competitive position worldwide. With electric drives, digital connectivity and autonomous driving, we want to make the automobile cleaner, quieter, more intelligent and safer. We have set ourselves the goal of continuing to excite our customers in the future and meeting their diverse needs with an appealing product portfolio of impressive vehicles and forward-looking, tailor-made mobility solutions.

Europe/Other Markets

For 2022, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be distinctly above that recorded in the reporting period. At the same time, however, the possible impact of the pandemic and the still uncertain consequences of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU may result in ongoing uncertainty among consumers and dampen demand. Limited vehicle availability as a result of the semiconductor shortage may also continue to weigh on the volume of new registrations. Nevertheless, we assume a significant increase for the United Kingdom and Spain in 2022. In France and Italy, there will probably be a slight or moderate increase respectively in the volume of new registrations compared to the reporting period.

For light commercial vehicles, we expect the volume of new registrations in Western Europe in 2022 to be moderately up on the previous year’s level despite the possible impact of the pandemic, continuing supply bottlenecks for semiconductors and the still uncertain consequences of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. We predict a moderate to noticeable increase in the United Kingdom, Spain and France and a slight decline in Italy.

Sales of passenger cars in 2022 are expected to distinctly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the region’s other markets, a slight to significant rise in the number of new registrations is expected.

Registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2022 are expected to slightly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The volume of new registrations for passenger cars in Turkey in 2022 is projected to be significantly above the previous year’s level. In South Africa, the market volume in 2022 is likely to be up moderately year-on-year.

The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in 2022 is expected to be significantly higher in Turkey and moderately higher in South Africa compared with the respective prior–year figure.

Germany

In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2022 to distinctly exceed the prior-year figure.

We also anticipate that the number of registrations of light commercial vehicles will be moderately up on the previous year.

North America

The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America as a whole and in the USA in 2022 is likely to be slightly higher than the previous year’s level. Demand will probably remain highest for models in the SUV and pickup segments. In Canada, the number of new registrations is projected to be moderately higher than the previous year’s level. For Mexico we also expect a moderate increase in new registrations compared with the reporting period.

South America

Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate a distinct increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2022 compared with the previous year. The market volume in Brazil is also expected to grow distinctly compared with 2021. We anticipate that the volume of new registrations in Argentina will also be distinctly higher year-on-year.

Asia-Pacific

The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be slightly up on the prior-year level in 2022. We estimate that the market volume in China will also be slightly higher than the comparative figure for 2021. Attractively priced entry-level models in the SUV segment in particular should still see strong demand. As long as there is no resolution in sight, the trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence. We anticipate that the Indian market will perform at the previous year’s level. Japan should see distinct growth in market volume in 2022.

The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in 2022 will probably be slightly higher than the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be on a level with the prior year. For India, we are forecasting a distinctly higher volume in 2022 than in the reporting period. In the Japanese market, we estimate that volumes will be slightly up year-on-year.