Development of the global economy
Our planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will continue to grow in 2022, albeit at a somewhat lower level overall, after the recovery observed in the past fiscal year – provided that the Covid-19 pandemic does not flare up again and that shortages of intermediates and commodities become less intense. We continue to believe that risks will arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will be negatively impacted by ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts, with risks arising especially from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We assume that both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will experience positive momentum.
Furthermore, we are forecasting that the global economy will also continue to grow in the period from 2023 to 2026.
In Western Europe, we expect comparatively robust economic growth, exceeding the 2019 pre-crisis level. The widespread impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the uncertain consequences of the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU will fundamentally pose major challenges.
We likewise anticipate relatively robust growth rates in Central Europe in 2022. Economic output in Eastern Europe is also expected to continue growing – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict – though at a somewhat slower pace, similar to the Russian economy.
For Turkey we expect markedly positive, albeit slower growth than in the reporting period given high inflation and a weak local currency. The South African economy will probably be dominated by political uncertainty and social tensions again in 2022 resulting from high unemployment, among other factors. Here we anticipate only moderate growth.
We expect gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany to grow at a significantly positive pace in 2022, comparatively speaking, exceeding the 2019 pre-crisis level. The labor market situation is likely to improve further in 2022.
We anticipate comparatively high economic growth in the USA in 2022 with a continued recovery of the labor market situation. The US Federal Reserve expects interest rates to rise in the course of the year, albeit at a relatively low level. Further inflationary trends and developments in the labor market will play a key role as decisive factors for possible adjustments to the key interest rate. Economic growth in Canada is also likely to be significantly positive, comparatively speaking, while growth in Mexico is expected to be moderate.
In all probability, the Brazilian economy will record a moderately positive rate of growth in 2022. The economic situation in Argentina is likely to improve slightly amid continued very high inflation and depreciation of the local currency.
The Chinese economy will probably continue growing at a relatively high level in 2022. We also expect a relatively high rate of expansion for the Indian economy in 2022. A robust rise in economic output is anticipated in Japan.